Thinking about grading your collection after the big game? In this guide, we’ll walk you through the post-Super Bowl market cycle, how to calculate your potential ROI, and whether you should lock in “hype” profits now or send your cards to a grading service for the long haul.
The confetti has fallen on Super Bowl LX, and for football card collectors, the “offseason” has officially begun. While the stadium lights are off, the trading floor is just heating up. In the 2026 market, marked by the transition of licensing and the rise of a new generation of signal-callers, the window of liquidity is narrower than ever.
As a collector, you are likely staring at a stack of Drake Maye rookies or Joe Burrow parallels, wondering: Do I sell into the remaining Super Bowl hype, or do I wait for a PSA slab to potentially double my return?
The “Sell on the Hype” Rule: Understanding Post-Season ROI
In football card collecting, timing is more than just a metric; it’s the difference between a 10x return and a “bag-hold.” Historically, trading card auctions see their highest volume in the 48 hours following the Super Bowl.
However, by late February, liquidity begins to dry up. “Sell on the Hype” suggests that unless a player is a “Blue Chip” legend (think Mahomes or Brady), their raw card value will likely dip 20-30% by May.
Why Liquidity Matters Now
- The Transition Gap: 2026 is a watershed year as Fanatics takes the reins of NFL licensing. Legacy Panini Prizm and Donruss cards are becoming “sunset” products, creating a temporary liquidity spike for older “licensed” slabs.
- Market Reset: Prediction markets and card indices often cool down in March. Selling now allows you to move “raw” cards at a premium before the market pivots to baseball or the NFL Draft.
Grading vs. Raw Selling: Making the Move
The decision to grade usually boils down to the “Grading Multiplier.” If a raw Drake Maye Silver Prizm sells for $200, but a PSA 10 sells for $850, the math favors grading. But if the “Pop Report” (population of graded cards) is already in the thousands, that multiplier will shrink.
Based on population data from PSA’s registry, “low-pop” parallels (numbered to /99 or less) are the only cards that truly justify the current FAQ card grading turnaround times during the off-season.
Identifying “Sophomore Slump” Sleepers for 2026
While everyone is chasing the Super Bowl winners, the real money is made in the “Sophomore Slump” recovery. In 2025, several high-profile rookies underperformed due to injury or poor team situations. In 2026, these are your “buy-low” grading candidates.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR): After an injury-plagued debut season, his card valuation has dipped. However, his elite pedigree remains. Buying raw “Gem Mint” candidates now to grade during the quiet summer months is a classic “pro” move.
- Brian Thomas Jr. (WR): With an ADP (Average Draft Position) reset in the fantasy world, his cards have followed suit. Look for “Case Hits” like Downtowns or Kabooms that are currently undervalued.
- The QB “Wait-and-See”: Historically, quarterbacks who lose their first Super Bowl—like Drake Maye in Super Bowl LX—see a temporary stagnation. Use this as an entry point. As we saw with Joe Burrow, the market eventually rewards consistent “Elite” play over a single game result.
TCG vs. Sports: Centering and Surface Expertise
Unlike TCG cards where “eye appeal” can sometimes carry a 9, football card grading is brutal on centering and surface scratches.
The 60/40 Rule
PSA allows for 60/40 centering on the front for a Grade 10, but the 2026 secondary market is much less forgiving. A card with 60/40 centering will often sell for 15-20% less than a “True Gem” with 50/50 centering.
Chrome Surface Hazards
Modern “Chrome” technology used in football sets is prone to “refractor lines.” These are microscopic factory lines that run across the card. Before submitting to a grading service, use a jeweler’s loupe and a directed LED light. If you see a print line, it is almost always better to sell the card raw as “Near Mint-Mint” rather than risking a PSA 8.
Comparison: Grading ROI Post-Super Bowl
| Card Type | Raw Value (Post-SB) | PSA 10 Est. Value | Verdict |
| Top QB Rookie (Silver Prizm) | $250 | $900 | Grade Immediately |
| WR “Sleeper” (Base Prizm) | $15 | $45 | Sell Raw / Bulk |
| Vintage Legend (PSA 7-8) | $1,200 | N/A | Consign / Hold |
| Numbered Parallel (/25) | $500 | $1,800+ | Grade (Express) |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is it worth grading base cards of Super Bowl winners?
In our experience, no. Unless it’s a generational talent like Mahomes, the population of base cards usually explodes post-Super Bowl, causing the value of PSA 10s to crater by the time you get your cards back from the lab.
Q: How do I handle “soft corners” on high-end patches?
Thicker cards (like National Treasures RPA) are notoriously hard to grade. A PSA 8 on a thick patch card is often considered a “success.” If the card has visible whitening, you may achieve a higher ROI through card consignment as a raw “authentic” piece rather than a low-grade slab.
Q: What is the fastest way to get liquidity?
If you need cash to fund your 2026 Draft Day buys, raw trading card auctions are the fastest. However, for maximum profit, grading a “sleeper” in March and selling during August training camp is the gold standard for ROI.
Final Thoughts: Trust the Process
The post-Super Bowl market is a game of discipline. Don’t let the “offseason blues” lead to panic selling. Identify your “Gem Mint” candidates, utilize a trusted grading service, and keep a close eye on those sophomore sleepers who are one training camp highlight away from a price explosion.